Disappointing, but not exactly surprising – yup, that just about sums up the 2024 Cincinnati Reds. The playoffs have been a pipedream for a month, but today the Reds were officially eliminated from the postseason. The baseball gods finally heard our pleas to put us out of our misery.
Of course, the Reds would play respectable ball in September. Their winning percentage in the month so far is .588, the second-best month of their season. I’ll just go ahead and say it: the Reds are playing their best ball right now, and it doesn’t matter a lick.
Disappointing. Frustrating. Painful. But not surprising. No, not surprising in the least…
Heading into the season, the Reds looked promising, but promising implies unfinished business. Take Elly De La Cruz for example: he is, in a word, promising (and that’s putting it mildly). He might literally be the most talented player in baseball – but is he the best? No, far from it. Likewise, between their glut of young hitters, their rising stars in the rotation and a bullpen that was nails in 2023, the Reds looked like a young team with incredible potential. Potential, though, only gets you so far.
The Reds chose to bet on youth, and it came back to bite them. Prospects are prospects for a reason: there’s no “back of the baseball card” production to count on. The Reds thought they were going to see a continual, upward trajectory for all of their young players. Whoops. That didn’t happen. Their three-year postseason drought now becomes four. It’s been twelve years since they won a playoff game. It’s been twenty-nine years since they advanced in the playoffs. I thought this kind of pathetic ineptitude was only found in the show Shameless.
Speaking of shameless, the Reds proooobably should have seen this coming. In fact, I’d bet they did see this coming – they were just unable (or more likely, unwilling) to do more in the offseason. Don’t get me wrong: the Reds made a couple decent moves (the signings of Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez come to mind), but they were nowhere near enough to compete in a crowded NL. The Reds needed to be aggressive in fixing their ballclub. It was time for a serious glow-up; time to start shopping at Versace, not Men’s Warehouse. The Reds opted for the latter…again.
Not surprising. Quite predictable, actually. When have the Reds ever been willing to make a big splash in free agency? Since 2012, they’ve only handed out two contracts that were in the top-ten in terms of value in that offseason – and that came in the same year when the Reds signed Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas to identical deals (boy, wouldn’t the Reds like to undo that Moustakas contract) in 2020.
(Side-Note: Spotrac.com only has data going back to 2012, so I don’t know if the Reds signed any other “top-ten” free agents before that, but given their…history of frugality, I’d bet your house the answer would be a firm nooooooo.)
The Reds didn’t sit out free agency, but nor did they attack free agency either. On the spectrum of “wait and see” and “going all-in” the Reds definitely tilted toward the former, and it came back to bite them in the end. “Big” free-agent addition Jeimer Candelario is, simply, an average everyday ballplayer. Nick Martinez is useful with his ability to roleplay as a reliever and a starter, but his skill set is far more valuable on a team that has few holes. The Reds didn’t need help on the periphery of their roster, they needed some fundamental pieces. If the Reds hadn’t found a trade-deadline partner in Milwaukee to unload Frankie Montas, that signing would look far more questionable than it does today.
The outfield looked questionable to start the season. It looks like a complete disaster now. Of all the players this season who appeared in the outfield, not one is a lock to be on the roster in three years. Maaaybe Spencer Steer, but that’s more because of his positional versatility than his invaluable bat. Okay, we can throw in the always-enjoyable T.J. Friedl too. But that’s it.
Besides, if Steer and Friedl are making up two-thirds of your outfield, you’re probably middling at best. Stuart Fairchild and Jake Fraley are part-time players only. Will Benson probably doesn’t belong in the MLB. The Rece-Hinds moment in early July was borderline pornographic, but he’s a long way from consistent right now and has crashed back to Earth in a big way since then. And as for the Reds’ “big” deadline acquisition, how can anyone have any faith in Joey Wiemer? Yeah, it’s great the Reds got something in return for Montas, but a soon-to-be 26-year-old who the Brewers already gave up on? I have my doubts…
Doubt – that’s the word. I doubt everything about the Reds. Any logical person should. Sure, the starting rotation was great this year, and it has the potential to be even better next year, but you could have said the same thing about the bullpen this year, and the bullpen has been tormenting Reds fans all season. You could have said the same thing about the lineup in 2021. The Reds keep trying the “hope for the best” strategy. It’s not working. It never has.
So now, the Reds go into another offseason a loser. They’re searching for answers, but sadly, they only look for the answers they want to find. That means we can forget about a big move in free agency. We can forget about a true impact trade. We can forget any innovative thinking and aggression from this front office or ownership. Expect more of the same; that is to say, an abundance of caution and wishful delusion. Oh well, sign me up, I guess – like Phil Castellini said, where else are you gonna go?
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