Rough week for the AFC North. Only the Pittsburgh Steelers managed to get a victory, while the Baltimore Ravens blew a golden opportunity to steal a win from the Kansas City Chiefs. As for the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns…let’s just say both sides are doing their best to not draw attention after atrocious Week One performances.
What’s going on? This division is supposed to be a powerhouse, but this weekend was any indication, none of these four teams is anywhere close to being a contender. It was especially rough for the quarterbacks. Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow and Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson both looked indecisive and rusty in their first action since returning from season-ending injuries. Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson missed multiple red-zone opportunities to tie the game against the Chiefs, and even though they got the win, the Steelers can’t be happy with an offense that couldn’t find the endzone.
For years, the AFC North has stood as the premier division in the NFL. Last year, every team – even the last-place Bengals – was above .500. The way things look after one week, the AFC North might be fortunate to have one team above .500 in 2024. The NFL’s toughest division looks like a shell of its former self.
What am I saying? It’s only Week One! They’ll get it together…eventually…I suppose…
Baltimore Ravens
Notable Additions:
RB Derrick Henry
Notable Departures:
ILB Patrick Queen
OLB Jadeveon Clowney
FS Geno Stone
LG John Simpson
CB Ronald Darby
RG Kevin Zeitler
Notable Rookies:
CB Nate Wiggins (pick #30)
Best-Case: 12 - 5, 1st in the AFC North
Week One against Kansas City was a reality check for the Ravens, but this is still a very talented team led by a two-time MVP in Lamar Jackson. The addition of two-time NFL rushing champ Derrick Henry makes them all the more dangerous. And, with a defense that was one of the best in the NFL last year, the Ravens are as well-rounded as it gets on both sides of the ball.
It all starts, obviously, with Jackson, whose outstanding rushing ability and deadly passing make him an offensive juggernaut. As long as he’s healthy, the Ravens have a viable offense – and the addition of Henry at running back only amplifies that. The “thunder/lightning” trope has a long history in the NFL, but the Ravens might be the first to have a thunder/lightning running game made up of a bulldozer at RB and a peregrine falcon at QB. With Trey Flowers blooming into a bona fide number one receiver, the Ravens may be able to take a step forward in their passing game too.
Despite losing defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald in the offseason to Seattle, Baltimore still returns the bones of a top-tier defense. Roquan Smith is a human battering-ram at linebacker, and safety Kyle Hamilton can disappear and then reappear out of thin air. They’re two of the best in the NFL at their position, and they form the backbone of this ferocious defense. The pass rush, between linebackers Odafe Oweh, Kyle Van Noy, and David Ojabo, and defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike, remains dangerous as always. Baltimore is one of the most well-rounded teams in the league, and despite some offseason losses, are more than potent enough to make another deep postseason run.
Worst-Case: 6 - 11, 4th in the AFC North
In a division this strong, six wins might not be enough to avoid the basement. In the worst-case scenario, that’s a possibility for this Ravens team, strong as they may appear on paper.
Week One against Kansas City opened some eyes. Lamar Jackson is as decorated as any player in the league, but he still can’t be trusted to make big throws in big spots, and that’s concerning for a QB going into his seventh professional season. As great as Jackson’s rushing ability may be – and make no mistake, it’s still incredible – the Ravens are going to need him to throw the ball well, and that’s not a given right now.
A bigger concern has to be the run game, especially when Derrick Henry is in the game. Henry, like Jackson, is an extremely decorated player, but he looked stuck in neutral on Thursday night. At 30-years-old, Henry is getting up there for a RB, but it’s more likely that the significant departures along the offensive line were the run game’s biggest limiting factor. Without their trademark ability to pound the ball on the ground, the Ravens could see a massive drop-off in offensive production.
Lastly, the defense has to be a major concern for Baltimore as well, after Kansas City moved the ball with relative ease. Mike Macdonald is one of the brightest defensive minds in the league – and he’s gone to the West Coast. The brain drain in Baltimore is a huge issue, and without Macdonald around to put his defenders in the most advantageous positions, a repeat of last year’s outstanding defensive effort will be impossible. With regression from both offense and defense, the Ravens might be staring at a last-place finish for the first time since 2021.
Cincinnati Bengals
Notable Additions:
DT Sheldon Rankins
FS Geno Stone
RB Zack Moss
RT Trent Brown
TE Mike Gesicki
SS Vonn Bell
Notable Departures:
CB Chidobe Awuzie
RT Jonah Williams
DT D.J. Reader
WR Tyler Boyd
RB Joe Mixon
Notable Rookies:
RT Amarius Mims (pick #18)
Best-Case: 12 - 5, 1st in the AFC North
Forget what you saw on Sunday – that was an imposter. The true Bengals have an offense that can score with anyone and a speedy, opportunistic defense that can make timely stops. It’s the same recipe that saw them reach back-to-back AFC title games in 2021 and 2022, and it’s what gives the Bengals a chance in 2024.
QB Joe Burrow is the catalyst. He’s accurate, he’s methodical, and, most importantly, he’s cool, giving him an intangible edge that goes beyond statistics and traits. Plus, he has Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, two un-guardable receivers on the outside. No team can match that kind of raw passing firepower. The offensive line, which has been much-maligned over the years, looks as strong as ever with four returning starters and the addition of Trent Brown as an upgrade over the departed Jonah Williams. With RB Zack Moss also brought in to supplement second-year RB Chase Brown, for the first time in ages, the Bengals could have real balance offensively.
If the Bengals are going to rebound from 2023, though, it really starts with the defense. Last year’s unit was picked apart in the passing game and abused in the run game. Big plays were the standard. It was, in a word, disastrous. Fortunately, the Bengals made several additions to their defense to fix those issues. DT Sheldon Rankins brings some pass rush juice up the middle that the Bengals have lacked since the days of Geno Atkins, and safety Geno Stone brings a ball-hawking skill-set the Bengals have missed since Jessie Bates III left in 2023. The pieces are in place for the Bengals to return to the top of the AFC North, and potentially do much more than that.
Worst-Case: 5 - 12, 4th in the AFC North
It’s difficult to unsee the debacle that was Sunday. The Bengals looked downright helpless at times against a New England Patriots team that was thought to be one of the worst in the NFL. The Pats very well may be – what, then, does that say about the Bengals?
I can’t sugarcoat it; Sunday was brutal. Joe Burrow did not look confident, and for someone who’s made his name being one of the coolest cats in America, that is a very troubling sign. After being beaten up so much in his short career, it’s impossible not to draw comparisons to Andrew Luck, whose career was cut-short due to injury frustrations. Burrow could very well be heading down a similar path, and if the Bengals aren’t going to get the best from their franchise QB, they are in deep trouble.
And despite all the additions they made to their defense, the run defense still looks like a major liability. D.J. Reader was not resigned, and with two of their rookie DTs on the shelf, the position looks as weak and thin as it’s been in a long time. Defensive end Sam Hubbard may not be the run defender he once was either. If the offense is unable to consistently get (and sustain) leads, a leaky run defense will doom this team to the bottom of the division.
Cleveland Browns
Notable Additions:
ILB Jordan Hicks
WR Jerry Jeudy
Notable Departures:
DT Jordan Elliott
OLB Sione Takitaki
QB Joe Flacco
Notable Rookies:
None
Best-Case: 11 - 5, 1st in the AFC North
Like the Bengals’ performance on Sunday, maybe it’s just best we just bury the Browns’ Week One performance versus the Dallas Cowboys. That’s not a representation of what this team will be in 2024. It’s a long season, and with a little more time to season, the Browns will be showing why they’re one of the most balanced teams in football.
The Browns are defense-first, and with an un-blockable superstar like Myles Garrett at defensive end, it’s easy to see why. Trying to stop Garrett is like trying to stop a gorilla. The rest of the Browns defense feeds off that disruption. Za’Darius Smith is the perfect compliment opposite Garrett, while three-time Pro Bowl cornerback frustrates even the best receivers in the NFL. If that wasn’t enough, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is one of the NFL’s best all-around linebackers.
If the offense can take a step forward, it’s curtains for the rest of the AFC North. Much of that comes down to QB Deshaun Watson. He’s demonstrated elite ability in the past, and while he’s had a circuitous and unpleasant path of late, if he can get back to the player he was in 2020, the Browns will be formidable on offense. Between Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, and Elijah Moore, the Browns have a dynamic group of pass catchers, and their superb offensive line makes life hard on defenses. Once RB Nick Chubb returns to the lineup, they’ll have another All-Pro at their disposal. With their outstanding D, potent run game and emerging pass game, the Browns have all the makings of a division champ in 2024.
Worst-Case: 5 - 12, 4th in the AFC North
Deshaun Watson does not look good. He has not looked good at any point since he arrived in Cleveland in 2022. It’s more than fair to wonder if his days as a top ten – or even top 32 – QB in the league are over. If that’s the case, the Browns could be in for an extremely disappointing year.
As up-and-down as Watson has been in Cleveland, his backup Jameis Winston has an even worse reputation for volatility. That’s all Cleveland has to choose from this year. Steady play at QB could be completely absent from this team. That’s ominous in a division that’s as consistently competitive as the AFC North.
Sadly, QB isn’t where the Browns’ issues end either. Amari Cooper is a stud, but Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore are both disappointing cast-offs from bad teams. The run game is diminished without Nick Chubb, and at the moment, both of their starting offensive tackles are injured. The injury bug stunted the Browns last year too, but this time around, it could be even more significant.
The defense, especially the pass rush, should still be a force, but an uninspiring Dallas run game managed over 100 yards on 25 carries on Sunday, suggesting a leaky run defense last year for Cleveland is still a problem. It’s not too different that the Bengals issues – an offense that can’t get or hold leads mixed with a defective run defense won’t win you many games. That’s the Browns’ path right now, and it leads to the bottom of the AFC North.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Notable Additions:
ILB Patrick Queen
KR Cordarrelle Patterson
SS DeShon Elliott
CB Donte Jackson
Notable Departures:
WR Dionte Johnson
Notable Rookies:
Best-Case: 11 - 5, 1st in the AFC North
As the only winner amongst the AFC North over the weekend, the Steelers have to feel quite good right now, even if the offense wasn’t exactly lighting the NFL world on fire. Instead, the Steelers will have to settle for having the most terrifying defense in the league. Such a pity…
In all seriousness, the Steelers defense looks like it’s picking up right where it left off. T.J. Watt is still a freak of nature at outside linebacker, and he picked up a sack and two tackles for a loss against a highly-regarded Atlanta Falcons offensive line. In true Pittsburgh fashion, he isn’t alone: fellow outside linebacker Alex Highsmith is a beast in his own right, while defensive linemen Cameron Heyward and Larry Ogunjobi create issues for offensive lineman too. All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, meanwhile, lurks in the secondary as a perennial turnover-machine. There is no weakness to this defense.
Offensively, this unit just needs to stay out of the way, and whether it’s Russell Wilson or Justin Fields who ultimately gets most of the snaps at QB, the Steelers have the potential to do it. Wilson’s best days may be behind him, but he can still deliver the ball accurately and has plenty of valuable experience. Fields, on the other hand, is a prodigious talent, with world class speed and a powerful arm. If he can ever harness his gifts, the Steelers will really be in business.
Fortunately for the offense, there’s a ton of talent to support whomever plays QB. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren for a dynamic RB duo, and George Pickens is emerging as one of the best downfield receivers in the league. The Steelers also drafted two new starters to their offensive line, and if Troy Fautanu and Zach Frazier can hit the ground running, a weak link from past seasons may finally be resolved. It won’t always look pretty with Pittsburgh on offense, but with a defense this fantastic, that’s no impediment to a division title.
Worst-Case: 7 - 10, 3rd in the AFC North
It feels silly to make any sort of prediction that begins with the Steelers finishing below .500 with Mike Tomlin as their head coach (as he’s famously never done), but with this QB situation, it’s fair to wonder if that streak is coming to an inglorious end. Justin Fields did not look very competent in his first start as a Steeler, and given his track-record of below-average play, that’s not reassuring for his development. Wilson has been a tremendous QB in the past, but that was many years ago, and he’s been a disaster ever since leaving Seattle. Pittsburgh might have the worst QBs in the league, and it’s not particularly close.
The offensive problems don’t stop there either. Outside of Pickens, the receiver room looks bleak. Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin III probably shouldn’t be starting in the NFL, but here we are. And if the offensive line hasn’t taken a step forward from 2023, that will just compound the struggles at QB. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren might be a talented duo, but it won’t matter much if the O-line isn’t opening any holes. The Steelers might have a great defense – maybe the best in the league – but it won’t matter if the offense can’t do its part. The Steelers might have the worst offense in the league, and that’s enough to see Tomlin suffer the first losing season of his career.
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