The AFC South is one of those perpetual “punching bag” divisions in the NFL. Its four teams are rarely taken seriously as contenders – and why should they? It’s been almost fifteen years since an AFC South team reached the Super Bowl, and even longer since the division produced a Super Bowl champion. Given recent history, there’s nothing to get excited about…right?
Not so fast. Let’s not get carried away buttttt…
The AFC South might actually be really good this year. Really.
There’s a lot of projection involved, obviously, but the pedigree is there too. When checking off boxes for your “Contender To-Do List,” the first consideration usually is, “Do I like their quarterback?” The second is, “Do I like their coach?” And given the QB/Coach combinations in the AFC South, there’s a lot to like.
The Houston Texans struck gold last year when they pried head coach DeMeco Ryans from his defensive coordinator position with the San Francisco 49ers, and they struck gold again when they drafted Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud with the second pick. After being almost universally considered one of the worst teams in the NFL heading into the 2023 season, the upstart Texans stunned the NFL world when they bullied their way to a division title. That was year one of the Ryans/Stroud partnership – imagine what they could do in year two.
But again, the Texans are by no means the only team in the division with an enviable QB/HC situation. It’s hard to outdo a team that won a playoff game with a first-year HC and QB, but the Indianapolis Colts make quite the case. No offense to Stroud, but when it comes to potential, second-year QB Anthony Richardson has him dead to rights. They don’t make many human beings like Richardson, who clocked a 4.43 in the 40-yard dash while measuring in at 6’4” and 244 lbs. and throwing the ball a country mile. In fact, he may be the only human who can do that – and second-year HC Shane Steichen eagerly demonstrated plenty of offensive know-how to get the most of his generationally-skilled QB.
Of course, the Jacksonville Jaguars have their own generationally-talented QB in former number one pick Trevor Lawrence, and employ the only HC in the division with more than a single playoff victory in Doug Pedersen. It hasn’t been smooth sailing – Lawrence had a forgettable 2023 season and Pedersen is on the hot-seat because of it – but it wasn’t that long ago that ESPN analysts were pegging Lawrence as a future top-five QB in the league, and it wasn’t that long ago that Pedersen was leading Nick Foles and his Philadelphia Eagles to a Super Bowl victory of Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.
The Tennessee Titans, meanwhile, are hoping their new HC Brian Callahan can be the ideal mentor for second-year QB Will Levis as they seek to make a Texans-like run to a division title after a descent into irrelevance. Compared to the other three teams in the AFC South, it’s hard not to feel a little underwhelmed by the Titans’ offerings, but the same could be said about the Texans before last season. A lot can change in the NFL – and quickly too. The Titans are counting on it.
Houston Texans
Notable Additions:
DE Danielle Hunter
WLB Azeez Al-Shaair
DE Denico Autry
WR Stefon Diggs
RB Joe Mixon
Notable Departures:
DE Jonathan Greenard
DT Sheldon Rankins
ILB Blake Cashman
RB Devin Singletary
RT George Fant
DT Maliek Collins
Notable Rookies:
CB Kamari Lassiter (pick #42)
Best-Case: 14 - 3, 1st in the AFC South
The Texans are the classic, “We have our franchise QB on a cheap rookie contract, let’s go for it” team. Look at that list of additions. Stefon Diggs and Danielle Hunter, both four-time Pro Bowlers. Azeez Al-Shaair and Denico Autry, two certified hard-asses. Joe Mixon, four-time 1,000-yard rusher. Hey Houston, you wanted the Texans to go all-in? You got it!
Make no mistake: if the Texans wind up with the number-one seed in the AFC, it will be no fluke. This team has it all, with Stroud rapidly ascending to superstar-status, Ryans coaching up an undermanned defense into one of the better units in the league, and a host of devastating receivers and runners. They won’t be catching anyone napping in 2024, but with talent oozing from every direction, the surprise-factor is unnecessary.
The losses the Texans suffered in the offseason are more than outweighed by the new faces they brought in, and if a few of their exceptionally-skilled youngsters can break out, they’ll be in the thick of the Super Bowl conversation. They might just wind up with the best record in the NFL. With this coach and this QB, there’s no telling what the Texans might achieve.
Worst-Case: 7 - 10, 3rd in the AFC South
The Texans would have you believe that they’re ahead of schedule. In the 2023 preseason, they were all but left for dead, and they found a way to squeak into the playoffs anyway. This should be the beginning of a dynasty – but after amazing the NFL world last year, the Texans may soon be the ones on the wrong end of a nasty surprise.
On the surface, the Texans went “all-in” for a Super Bowl. But the reality is, those additions may be more flash than substance, and the players they lost could prove impossible to properly replace. If Hunter isn’t the player he was in Minnesota, the Texans could really feel the loss of Jonathan Greenard. Al-Shaair is a downgrade from Blake Cashman at inside linebacker. The Texans had to settle for Mario Edwards Jr. to “replace” Sheldon Rankins. As much as Stroud wowed the league with his advanced play as a rookie, a balanced Texans defense has as much to do with their success as their precocious QB. That might not be the case in 2024.
The offense has its issues as well. The offensive line features one of the league’s best left tackles in Laremy Tunsil, but no one else on the line is much more than league-average. The Diggs acquisition made headlines, but the 30-year-old receiver was basically invisible for much of the second-half of the season for Buffalo. Mixon was brought in to be the bell-cow ‘back, but he is getting older and has lacked explosiveness in recent years. The Texans still have an impossibly bright future, but they may take a step back before they take another step forward.
Indianapolis Colts
Notable Additions:
DT Raekwon Davis
Notable Departures:
QB Gardner Minshew
RB Zack Moss
Notable Rookies:
DE Laiatu Latu (pick #15)
WR Adonai Mitchell (#52)
Best-Case: 12 - 5, 1st in the AFC South
If you were building the perfect QB prospect, that player would look a lot like Anthony Richardson. Tall, strong, rocket-armed, turbo-charged, built like a Greek statue – that’s Richardson in a nutshell. He only played in four games last year due to injury, but he demonstrated plenty of jaw-dropping ability. If he stays healthy, he could make even the strongest Stroud-supporters green with envy.
He won’t be on his own either. Steichen has already shown himself to be one of the league's brightest offensive minds. He coaxed seven wins out of Gardner Minshew – if he gets seventeen with Richardson, why couldn’t they get five more? And let’s not forget another big piece who was limited by injury in 2023 – running back Jonathan Taylor, who is just a couple years removed from an 1,800-yard season. The offensive line is rock-solid and the receiving talent is in place as well. The Colts could very well be a top-five offense when the season’s over.
The defense also looks dangerous. After a staggering run of fourteen offensive players selected with the first fourteen picks of the draft, the Colts broke the streak by taking the first – and by extension, the best – defensive player on the board, pass-rush savant Laiatu Latu. This is exactly what the Colts needed: an attention-drawing, game-breaking pressure-creator off the edge. This group was already good, now it has the personnel to be great. And that could get the Colts back into the driver’s seat of the AFC South.
Worst-Case: 5 - 12, 4th in the AFC South
Frankly, Richardson might not be any good, and he might not be able to stay healthy, and either way, that's a big problem for the Colts. Last year, they had Minshew to make up for Richardson’s absence – this year, it’s Joe Flacco, and while the 39-year-old QB is coming off a remarkable season with the Cleveland Browns, he was sitting on his couch until late November. That’s probably a downgrade.
Health remains a big theme for the rest of the Colts roster as well. Taylor has been a beast in the past, but he’s been limited for two years now, and without Zack Moss backing him up, they’re relying on the chronically-underwhelming Trey Sermon. Right tackle Braden Smith missed seven games last year with a knee injury. Latu is an exciting prospect, but he had a major operation in college to repair a nerve issue in his neck and nearly quit football. Injuries can cripple even the strongest rosters, but with Indy, it feels especially tangible.
Another big problem of the Colts is the defense, which surrendered the fifth-most points in the NFL last season. Their two outside cornerbacks, JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones, provided little resistance, putting even more pressure on their front seven to speed up opposing QBs, and their linebackers are unremarkable. Outside of Latu, the Colts did little to improve this unit. This defense needs to be much better to make up for Richardson’s struggles (if he stays healthy in the first place, that is). That might not happen, and the Colts might struggle because of it.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Notable Additions:
DT Arik Armstead
WR Gabriel Davis
FS Darnell Savage
C Mitch Morse
CB Ronald Darby
Notable Departures:
WR Calvin Ridley
CB Darious Williams
SS Rayshawn Jenkins
NT Folorunso Fatukasi
Notable Rookies:
WR Brian Thomas Jr. (pick #23)
Best-Case: 12 - 5, 1st in the AFC South
This is the year for Trevor Lawrence. This is the moment where he finally puts it together. One of the best QB-prospects the NFL has ever seen is about to become one of the best QBs, period. If that happens, expect the Jags to roll into a home playoff game come January.
The key is their prodigiously-talented QB. He appeared to be on the brink of joining the elite QB conversation after orchestrating a massive comeback win in the playoffs over the Los Angeles Chargers in 2022, but the follow-up season was a disappointment. But injuries played a major part in slowing Lawrence down in 2023. He’s fully healthy now, and ready to reach his full potential.
He has the supporting cast to do it. Pederson is a Super-Bowl winning head coach with tons of experience and offensive-acumen. He knows how to tap into Lawrence’s tremendous skill set. Christian Kirk is a great all-around receiver who’s become a favorite of Lawrence, while free-agent addition Gabe Davis is one of the league’s best deep threats. The most intriguing player, though, is rookie Brian Thomas Jr., who brings an elite size and speed combination to the position. This group will be exceptionally hard to cover, and that’s without mentioning the damage RB Travis Etienne Jr. does on the ground.
The Jaguars also feature a defense littered with breakout candidates, including defensive end Travon Walker and linebacker Devin Lloyd. The signing of stud interior defender Arik Armstead should make both Walker and Lloyd’s lives easier, as well as star pass rusher Josh Hines-Allen, who registered 17.5 sacks last year. With so much talent on offense and defense, the Jags look like they’re on a path to redemption and an AFC South crown.
Worst-Case: 6 - 11, 3rd in the AFC South
Pedersen hasn’t proven much since his days in Philly. If anything, last year showed exactly why the Eagles were smart to move off their former head coach so aggressively. Pedersen isn’t getting the best out of Lawrence, and the Jaguars are suffering because of it.
Pedersen isn’t the only thing holding the Jags back either. The offensive line is poor and the receivers lack a true number one target. The defense is below-average and lost numerous pieces in the offseason. This team isn’t talented enough to make up for bad coaching, and unfortunately for Jacksonville, that’s what they’re getting.
If the Jags have another lost season, expect Pederson to be out of a job. Lawrence is supposed to be better than this – that’s on the head coach, especially one who was hired specifically for that purpose. And if he can’t get the best out of Lawrence, why should we expect him to get the best out of any other position group? As long as Pedersen is around, the Jags are going nowhere.
Tennessee Titans
Notable Additions:
WR Calvin Ridley
C Lloyd Cushenberry III
CB Chidobe Awuzie
RB Tony Pollard
ILB Kenneth Murray
CB L’Jarius Sneed
Notable Departures:
ILB Azeez Al-Shaair
CB Sean Murphy-Bunting
C Aaron Brewer
DE Denico Autry
RB Derrick Henry
Notable Rookies:
Best-Case: 9 - 8, 2nd in the AFC South
Signing Brian Callahan was nice, but Brian bringing his dad Bill along to coach the offensive line? That I really like.
Improvement on offense is what the Titans were banking on when they brought Callahan and Callahan on board, and it’s a smart plan. QB Will Levis brings elite traits to the table, and following the signing of Calvin Ridley to pair with the ageless DeAndre Hopkins, the second-year QB has two outstanding receivers at his disposal. If the elder Callahan can breathe some life into an offensive line that’s seriously regressed in recent years, the run game could take off too behind the dynamic Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. Adding J.C. Latham with the seventh pick and Lloyd Cushenberry III in free agency will be a big help too.
On defense, Jeffery Simmons continues to be an absolute game-wrecker at defensive tackle, and the addition of planet-sized nose tackle T’Vondre Sweat will give Simmons plenty of opportunities for one-on-ones against opposing lineman. The additions of L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie provide stability at cornerback, and with Harold Landry fully-recovered from his ACL tear in 2022, the Titans could have a scary pass rush. The Titans don’t look like contenders on paper, but with a few key improvements, at QB in particular, the Titans could be fighting for a playoff spot.
Worst-Case: 4 - 13, 4th in the AFC South
Levis’ season can be summed up with one sentence: in his first professional game, he threw four touchdown passes, and in his next eight, he also threw four touchdown passes. Too often for Levis, the accuracy just wasn’t there. If he’s not the QB the Titans think (or hope) he’ll be, this could potentially be the worst team in the NFL in 2023.
It’s tough to see the bright spots. The receivers seem okay, but Ridley hasn’t put up big numbers in four years, Hopkins isn’t un-guardable anymore, and Tyler Boyd was completely forgettable in his final season in Cincinnati. The loss of Derrick Henry leaves a massive void that Pollard and Spears cannot possibly fill. Henry was a force of nature, capable of generating offense by sheer will alone. Pollard, meanwhile, was disappointing as a full-time starter for the Dallas Cowboys, and Spears wasn’t particularly efficient as a runner as a rookie.
There are plenty of holes on defense too. Sweat is a massive human being, but conditioning will be a major concern, and the depth behind him is all but non-existent. Landry might not be the same player anymore. Kenneth Murray III and Quandre Diggs probably shouldn’t be starting in the NFL. Up-and-down this roster, there’s just an obvious lack of talent. Levis isn’t the kind of QB to elevate a bad roster. The Titans could find themselves at the bottom of the AFC because of it.
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