Who am I kidding? The Kansas City Chiefs are running away with the AFC West. It’s a foregone conclusion. They’ve only done it…(checks notes)...eight years in a row, and after handling the Baltimore Ravens last night they don’t just look like the team to beat, they look like a Red Tsunami. The rest of the division is sunk.
Still, the 10,000 foot view of the AFC West is a strange one. There’s lots of good coaches (Andy Reid, Sean Payton, and Jim Harbaugh) and a complete unknown (Antonio Pierce). There’s the game’s best quarterback (Patrick Mahomes), one of the game’s most promising QBs (Justin Herbert), one of the game’s most interesting QBs (Gardner Minshew), and a complete unknown (Bo Nix). There’s been a ton of turnover – except in Kansas City, of course. Kansas City brought back the band for a chance at the NFL’s first-ever three-peat.
Does anyone really have a chance besides Kansas City? Probably not. It would be one thing if any of the Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders or Los Angeles Chargers has rosters that measure up to Kansas City’s (they don’t), or if they had a QB on Mahomes’ level (they don’t), but for the AFC West, it’s a sad reality. Until further notice, it’s the Chiefs' world, and we’re just living in it.
Denver Broncos
Notable Additions:
FS Brandon Jones
WR Josh Reynolds
ILB Cody Barton
DE John Franklin-Myers
Notable Departures:
C Lloyd Cushenberry III
ILB Josey Jewell
FS Justin Simmons
QB Russell Wilson
WR Jerry Jeudy
Notable Rookies:
QB Bo Nix (pick #12)
Best-Case: 10 - 7, 2nd in the AFC West
Am I drunk? 10 - 7?
Hey, Sean Payton has a history of getting the job done. In fifteen years in New Orleans, his teams finished with ten or more wins nine times. Payton doesn’t have Drew Brees to lead his offense in Denver, but first-round rookie Bo Nix. He doesn’t have to be Brees, but if he can at least be better than Russell Wilson was last year (not a high bar), the Broncos will be significantly better offensively in 2024.
The Jerry Jeudy trade hardly put a dent in the skill-position talent on this roster. Courtland Sutton returns as a bona fide number one receiver, Josh Reynolds is a reliable number two, and Marvin Mims showed a ton of upside as a rookie. Tight end Adam Trautman brings plenty of familiarity with Payton’s system after cutting his teeth with Payton’s New Orleans Saints, and running back Javonte Williams is an exciting runner. The Broncos also have a good offensive line featuring an imposing set of tackles in Garett Boles and Mike McGlinchey.
The Broncos will have to take a step forward on defense to get to the ten-win mark, but the additions they made in free agency will go a long way toward fixing their issues. Justin Simmons was a wonderful player in his prime, but he’s lost a step and Brandon Jones is an upgrade. Defensive end John Franklin-Myers is a powerful player who brings physicality to the Broncos’ D-line, while outside linebackers Jonathon Cooper and Nick Bonito make a formidable pass rush duo. With Payton coaching up an underrated offense, and a defense that could be excellent, the Broncos have the makings of a Wild Card team.
Worst-Case: 5 - 12, 4th in the AFC West
The only reason I gave the Broncos five wins is out of respect for Sean Payton.
Expecting anything substantial from Bo Nix as a rookie feels insane, and a couple flashes of adequacy in preseason against backups is not going to change my mind. I need to see a ton more before I buy into the hype.
There also isn’t a ton of, you know…talent on this team. Nix aside, Courtland Sutton is your best receiver? Javonte Williams’s 1,881 career rushing yards would rank twelfth all-time…in a single-season. We’re going into year four for Javonta – that is not a good sign.
Star power is also absent on defense outside of All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II. The Broncos might have a Hall of Fame head coach, but this roster doesn’t measure up in a stacked AFC. Payton may have lost his fastball too. Rookie QBs all have their struggles, but in Denver, it could get ugly. This team is headed to the AFC basement.
Kansas City Chiefs
Notable Additions:
WR Marquis “Hollywood” Brown
Notable Departures:
OG Nick Allegretti
ILB Willie Gay Jr.
LT Donovan Smith
Notable Rookies:
WR Xavier Worthy (pick #28)
LT Kingsley Suamataia (#63)
Best-Case: 17 - 0, 1st in the AFC West
I’m not just saying this for clicks – the Chiefs could seriously go 17 - 0 this year.
Think about what we watched on Thursday night: one year after having the most mediocre offense in the entire Patrick Mahomes-era, the Chiefs were electric against one of the best defenses in the NFL’s defense in 2023. No team since the 2007 Patriots has had this combination of league-best quarterbacking and coaching, unrelenting explosiveness on offense, and sound, disciplined defense. It stands to reason: if Mahomes is the best QB since Tom Brady, and Andy Reid is the best coach since Bill Belichick, and they’re both on the same team, why shouldn’t we expect the Chiefs to go undefeated?
It hurts to admit, but Kansas City is better today than the team that won the Super Bowl in February. Rookie receiver Xavier Worthy looked like a thunderbolt with legs on his two touchdowns and second-year reciever Rashee Rice was unguardable in the slot – even against an All-Pro linebacker like Roquan Smith. Even after trading away star cornerback L’Jarius Sneed in the offseason, the Chiefs looked like they hadn’t missed a beat on defense. I haven’t even mentioned Travis Kelce and Chris Jones yet – the best tight end and defensive tackle in the sport!
What am I missing? The offense is back to pre-2022 levels. The defense is as good as ever. The coaching staff is outstanding. Even their special teams are elite. There’s no weakness in Kansas City, and if – or when – the Chiefs complete their undefeated regular season, don’t be surprised if they finish the job in the Super Bowl.
Worst-Case: 10 - 7, 2nd in the AFC West
I’m not going lower than this. The Chiefs are too good at too many key spots to be a below-.500 team. But even with their top-tier QB play and coaching, there are still enough holes on offense and defense to make for a challenging (relative to Kansas City) season.
While the interior of Kansas City’s offensive line is stout, the tackles are a distinct weakness. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor is one of the most heavily penalized players in the league, while left tackle Kingsley Suamataia is an unproven rookie. It’s probably not enough to cripple this offense completely, but between the false starts, holding penalties and a few extra surrendered sacks, their tackle deficiency could seriously stall drives.
The loss of L’Jarius Sneed on defense also cannot be ignored. Last year, the Chiefs secondary was incredible, and while Trent McDuffie remains a stellar player in his own right, Sneed was often relied upon to cover the opponent’s best receiver. Losing him doesn’t just put a bigger spotlight on McDuffie, who might not be suited to a larger role, it also puts more strain on a suddenly depleted secondary. There are more talented receivers in the NFL to cover than ever, and it’s never been more important to have multiple defenders who can hold their own in space. Sometimes, quantity has a quality all its own, and the Chiefs quantity in the secondary took a noticeable hit.
Still, we’re talking about the Kansas City Chiefs here. They’re the back-to-back defending champs, and have reached the AFC Championship Game a preposterous six-times in a row. Even in my most pessimistic calculations, I can’t see the Chiefs missing the playoffs. They’re too good at too many important spots.
Las Vegas Raiders
Notable Additions:
DT Christian Wilkins
QB Gardner Minshew
LG Cody Whitehair
Notable Departures:
RB Josh Jacobs
DT Bilal Nichols
RT Jermaine Eluemunor
CB Amik Robinson
RG Greg Van Roten
Notable Rookies:
TE Brock Bowers (pick #13)
Best-Case: 10 - 7, 2nd in the AFC West
Gardner Minshew and Las Vegas? Sign me up, please!
And you’re going to throw in Brock Bowers too? Oh my word!
Don’t tell me…they also have Michael Mayer? I must be dreaming. And wait, they paired Christian Wilkins with Maxx Crosby and now have one of the most ferocious defenses in the league? That’s it – the Raiders are winning it all.
Okay, that’s a little much, but this team could be sneaky good. The two tight-end sets with Bowers and Mayer could be deadly in a league that continues to skew toward lighter and lighter players on defense, and though Josh Jacobs is no longer in town, new starter Zamir White looked capable in limited time last year. Plus, with an improving offensive line and one of the game's best receivers in Davante Adams to draw attention from defenses, the Raiders’ run game could be very tough to handle.
All new QB Gardner Minshew has to do is keep his play steady and mistake-free. He nearly got the Indianapolis Colts to the playoffs last year, is it that much of a stretch to say he could get ten wins out of this roster? The Raiders certainly looked more competitive last year after replacing Josh McDaniels at head coach with Antonio Pierce – if the Raider can continue their upward trajectory, a Wild Card berth could be in play.
Worst-Case: 3 - 14, 4th in the AFC West
Yeesh – what was I just trying to sell you? Two tight-end sets? That’s what we’ve come to?
Look, the Raiders are not a good football team. Gardner Minshew is limited as a QB – and that’s putting it mildly. He wouldn’t be starting for 31 other NFL teams. The talent at receiver and running back is almost non-existent outside of Davante Adams. Top running back Zamir White looked good in small doses last year, but expectations for him in 2024 are all about projection. And after losing Jermaine Eluemunor in free agency, the offensive line took a big hit too.
On defense, the addition of Christian Wilkins to the interior gives the Raiders some potential for a fearsome pass rush, but that’s where the excitement ends. The linebackers are average and the secondary needs a ton of work. To make matters worse, Antonio Pierce and his coaching staff are almost entirely unproven. The flashes of positivity last year could be a complete mirage. If they were, the Raiders are in for a tough year, one that could end with them holding the top pick in next year’s draft.
Los Angeles Chargers
Notable Additions:
TE Will Dissly
RB Gus Edwards
CB Kristian Fulton
WR D.J. Chark
ILB Denzel Perryman
DE Poona Ford
Notable Departures:
ILB Kenneth Murray
TE Gerald Everett
WR Mike Williams
RB Austin Ekeler
WR Keenan Allen
C Corey Linsley
Notable Rookies:
Best-Case: 11 - 5, 1st in the AFC West
This is the only team I could see winning the AFC West outside of Kansas City, and it would be by the skin of Jim Harbaugh’s teeth. But he could do it. This man brings more energy to coaching than anyone alive, and Brandon Staley looked like a guy who had his soul stolen from him in the weeks leading up to his dismissal. The Chargers needed a shakeup, and boy, did they get it.
Justin Herbert’s probably been a little overhyped during his short career, but he’s still a no-doubt top-ten QB in the NFL. He can make every throw, is big and strong enough to shake tacklers in the pocket, and athletic enough to create on his own. He looks like he’s been designed in a lab to annihilate defenses. No wonder Harbaugh left his cozy job at Michigan for a chance to coach this kid…
Betting big on the Chargers is more about belief in Harbaugh than pointing to any one position group. Let’s be clear: the Chargers are very talented, but they’ve been severely let down by coaching. If Harbaugh can come in and give this team a much-needed jolt, this roster is more than good enough to be an extremely competitive team in the AFC –good enough to potentially overtake Kansas City in the division. I’m not saying I’d bet on it, but how can we doubt Harbaugh at this point?
Worst-Case: 8 - 9, 3rd in the AFC West
Maybe I’m drinking too much of the Jim-Harbaugh kool aid, but I just don’t see the Chargers being bad in 2024. They might not be a playoff team, but between their coach who simply wins everywhere he’s been and their star QB, there’s no way they repeat the debacle that was their 2023 season.
That said, this team still has more than a few flaws. After gutting the receiving corps in the offseason, the Chargers are left with Josh Palmer as their de facto top target, Quentin Johnson, who was extremely disappointing as a rookie, as their number two, and rookie Ladd McKonkey in the slot. That’s not the only bad news: the combination of Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst is uninspiring at tight end, and the interior of the offensive line is in rough shape. The running game, meanwhile, features a competition between two Ravens’ cast-offs in Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins. The cupboard isn’t exactly bare, but it won’t be making Justin Herbert’s life easier.
Defensively, the Chargers are counting on massive bounce-back seasons from their star defensive end Joey Bosa. When the Chargers made their big trade for Khalil Mack in 2022, it was expected that they’d have a dominant pass rush – that hasn’t come to fruition. Mack is 33-year-old now, and if Bosa isn’t the unblockable menace he appeared to be early in his career, the Chargers will still be left wanting. That will put massive strain on a struggling secondary. Safety Derwin James might be a do-it-all chess piece on defense, but he can’t literally do it all. Harbaugh has won everywhere he’s been, but that doesn’t mean it will happen right away. The Chargers could be in for another season of mediocrity.
Comments