You know how some things are too good to be true? The NFC North is like that. This division could have three legitimate Super Bowl contenders – but I’ll believe it when I see it.
Okay, maybe it’s a bit hyperbole to say there’s three legitimate contenders in the division, but only because no rookie quarterback has ever led a team to a Super Bowl, let alone win one. As great as expectations are for number one pick Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears, that’s probably overdoing it.
But just because it’s a little premature for championship aspirations in Chicago doesn’t mean the same is true for the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers. Both won playoff games last year, both built upon their excellent rosters in the offseason, and both return first-rate coaching staffs. The Lions and Packers could very well be the two best teams in the entire conference – so long as the Bears don’t throw any wrenches in their plans.
And then, we come to the Minnesota Vikings. Sorry, Vikings fans – it just doesn't get any easier. One day your new, first-round QB J.J. McCarthy is getting praised for his fantastic preseason performance, and four days later, he’s having surgery on his knee. That’s pain.
Maybe new QB Sam Darnold will live up to his pre-draft hype six brutal years later. Maybe aliens really did build the pyramids. Who can say?
One thing’s for sure: this may be the most potent the NFC North has looked since its formation back in 2002. The Lions were one of the best teams in the NFL last year, and it was no fluke. The Packers could make a Lions-esque run if QB Jordan Love keeps ascending. The Bears may finally have found their playmaker at QB. The Vikings…well, at least head coach Kevin O’Connell is well-liked, because that might be all they have going for them.
Chicago Bears
Notable Additions:
RB D’Andre Swift
FS Kevin Byard
WR Keenan Allen
Notable Departures:
WR Darnell Mooney
DT Justin Jones
OG Cody Whitehair
FS Eddie Jackson
C Lucas Patrick
DE Yannick Ngakoue
Notable Rookies:
Best-Case: 11 - 6, 1st in the NFC North
Could the Bears really win the division? If Caleb Williams is the star most believe he could be, the answer is a resounding “yes.” The Patrick Mahomes comparisons are thrown around a little too often for my taste, but the truth is Williams doesn’t even have to be Mahomes to get the Bears playoff-bound. This team is exceptionally talented, especially at receiver. Williams may be walking into the best situation of any number one pick in history, and with his skill set, that’s enough to do serious damage in the NFC North.
Between speed-demon D.J. Moore, supreme technician Keenan Allen, and rookie sensation Rome Odunze, no offense in the league offers more variety and potential at the wide receiver position. As if dealing with that three-headed monster weren’t enough, opposing defenses will also have to plan for tight end Cole Kmet and running back D’Andre Swift, both of whom pose plenty of problems on their own. The Bears even feature an improving offensive line with four returning starters. They are, apparently, willing to do anything and everything to ensure Williams succeeds. Seems like a good plan.
Of course, offense isn’t the only place the Bears will need to see gains, but if their growth defensively in the second half of the season is any indication, the Bears may have already solved that problem. Much of their improvement coincided with the trade to acquire defensive end Montez Sweat, and the Pro Bowl edge rusher ignited a stagnant pass rush. With Sweat causing problems up front, a pair of disruptive linebackers in T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds, and a lights-out corner in Jaylon Johnson, the pieces are all in place for head coach Matt Eberflus to finally flex his defensive chops. Pair that with an offense that looks ready to explode, and the Bears could be hosting a playoff game in four months.
Worst-Case: 8 - 9, 3rd in the NFC North
Assuming Williams is at least competent, it’s hard to imagine the Bears can’t at least surpass their 7 - 10 record from last year. First-round QBs flop all the time, but Williams showed enough in college to suggest he can at least surpass whatever the Bears were getting from Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent. In a division this strong, though, that still might not be enough to put Chicago on the playoff-track,
The big question mark is Eberflus. In his two years in Chicago, he's proven little. He's also a defensive coach, who's now been tasked with developing the most important rookie in recent Bears history. That's not an encouraging combination. If the Bears start slow, Eberflus could find himself on the hot seat quickly.
And even the Bears’ second-half improvement on defense looks a little suspicious after a second glance. Despite finishing near the middle of the pack in many important categories, the Bears were tied for sixth in the NFL in takeaways, and turnover production is notoriously fickle from year to year. If the Bears aren’t as opportunistic on defense in 2024, it’s possible they don’t take the step forward many are expecting. That may leave Chicago on the outside looking in come playoff time.
Detroit Lions
Notable Additions:
DT D.J. Reader
NB Amik Robinson
DE Marcus Davenport
RG Kevin Zeitler
CB Carlton Davis
Notable Departures:
OG Jonah Jackson
SS Chauncy Gardner-Johnson
WR Josh Reynolds
DT Benito Jones
Notable Rookies:
CB Terrion Arnold (pick #24)
Best-Case: 13 - 4, 1st in the NFC North
Believe it – the Lions are legit. If they’re not on your shortlist of Super Bowl contenders, they should be. This team is stacked, especially on offense. They also feature a first-rate coaching staff, replete with brainiac offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, as well as their galvanizing head coach, the reigning king of Motown, the hero of Detroit, Mr. Motor City Dan Campbell himself.
Detroit literally just hosted the NFL Draft. This. Is. Detroit’s. Year.
And why shouldn’t it be? Jared Goff is back and he’s putting up MVP-like numbers these days. He has an elite receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown, an excellent receiving tight end in Sam LaPorta, one of the most explosive backs in football in Jahmyr Gibbs, and hands-down the sport’s best offensive line. With Johnson schooling on the sidelines, there’s no weakness. The Lions may have the best offense in the league.
Expect the defense to get better too. Last year, the secondary was a recurring problem – not anymore. Two rookie corners (including projected starter Terrion Arnold) were taken with the Lions’ first two picks in the draft. Last year’s second-round pick Brian Branch looks like a potential star at safety. Plus, the addition of cornerback Carlton Davis in free agency gives the Lions a plethora of options to stop the NFL’s top receivers.
The Lions weren’t content to add Davis and call it a day either. D.J. Reader was added to be a run-stopping force in the middle of the defensive line, and pass rusher Marcus Davenport was similarly signed to provide a steady dose of pressure the Lions were missing last year opposite Defensive Player of the Year candidate Aidan Hutchinson. If the Lions can see some improvement from 2023 first-round linebacker Jack Campbell, every level of their defense will be stocked with playmakers. This is the year – the Lions are Super Bowl bound.
Worst-Case: 7 - 10, 3rd in the NFC North
I hate to say it, but have we considered that a lot went right for the Lions last year? And maybe they aren’t this juggernaut they are made out to be on paper?
Don’t shoot the messenger. There’s a lot to like about the Lions, but there’s plenty to worry about too. Let’s start with the QB:
Hey, I said don’t shoot the messenger! As good as Goff was in 2023, he isn’t highly regarded in NFL circles for a reason. He has some streakiness to his game, and he’s totally, entirely, and completely immobile. What you see is what you get with Goff. He won’t do much to elevate your team. If the Lions' goal is the Super Bowl, they’re going to need to be perfect – unfortunately, last year they pretty much were, and they still couldn’t get past the Niners in the NFC Championship Game.
The issues aren’t just limited to QB. Amon-Ra St. Brown put up huge numbers as well, but he does most of his damage in the slot. The departed Josh Reynolds wasn’t a household name, but he was a consistent threat who took a lot of pressure off St. Brown. The Lions are counting on Jameson Williams taking the next step, but the former first-round pick has less than 400 career receiving yards. If he can’t get the job done, the Lions will be limited to the middle of the field with their passing game.
It’s not certain that the Lions improved much defensively either. Carlton Davis had a down year in his last season in Tampa. Marcus Davenport missed most of his season with a high-ankle sprain. D.J. Reader missed much of his with a torn quad. Relying on rookie corners is a petrifying proposition, and losing a vocal leader in the secondary like Chauncy Gardner-Johnson could be problematic too. The Lions are still an exceptionally talented team, but there are enough flaws for other teams to exploit. In a tough division, that could mean a surprise down year for Detroit.
Green Bay Packers
Notable Additions:
FS Xavier McKinney
RB Josh Jacobs
Notable Departures:
OG John Runyan Jr.
SS Darnell Savage
RB Aaron Jones
SS Jonathan Owens
LT David Bahktiari
Notable Rookies:
RG Jordan Morgan (pick #25)
Best-Case: 13 - 4, 1st in the NFC North
Jordan Love has arrived. The 25-year-old QB rode the bench for two years in Green Bay, and made the most of his first opportunity as a starter in the first post-Aaron Rodgers season for the Packers. He brushed aside a slow first half to throw for over 30 touchdowns. It’s incredibly unfair, but somehow, the Packers have found a way to go three-for-three on franchise QBs in their last three tries.
If Love is the player he appeared to be, the Packers have NFC Championship-material written all over them, and after the way Love annihilated a quality Cowboys’ defense in the Wild Card round, there isn’t much room for debate. Love is the real deal, and he has the weapons around him to bring another ring to Titletown. None of them are household names – except perhaps newly signed running back Josh Jacobs – but between their dependable offensive line, their abundance of viable receivers, and the savvy coaching of Matt LaFleur, this Packers’ offense is as deep and as explosive as it gets.
Defensively, the addition of Xavier McKinney adds some star power to a defense that struggled to generate turnovers. Last year, the Packers generated eighteen turnovers. Total. McKinney had five by himself last year. Pairing McKinney with star cornerback Jaire Alexander gives the Packers two outstanding performers in their secondary, and will make this unit an awfully tough group to crack.
There’s depth everywhere. They have a deep pass rush. There’s a ton of speed at linebacker. The secondary has top-end talent. But most importantly, the Packers got it right (again) at QB. Fair or not, the Packers look Super Bowl bound.
Worst-Case: 8 - 9, 3rd in the NFC North
I don't mean to slow down the Jordan Love hype train but…let's slow it down. Yes, he was statistically one of the best QBs in the NFL over the second half. So, what happened there in the first half? Heading into Week 11, the Packers were a 3 - 6 football team. What if they’re more “Packers in Weeks 1-10” than “Packers Week 11 and beyond?”
Jordan Love looked wonderful at the end of the season, but a lot of his success came against bad defenses. The Chargers, Lions, Buccaneers and Bears were basically wet paper towels when it came to defending the pass all season – and they lined up perfectly to give Love the smoothest finish he could ask for.
The run game isn’t necessarily improved either. Josh Jacobs was excellent in 2022, but his follow-up in 2023 was not impressive. The Packers allowed the perpetually-underrated Aaron Jones to walk to Minnesota, and it’s a decision they could come to regret. And for Pete’s sake, don’t start talking yourself into A.J. Dillon – I’ve been down this road too many times…
Defensively, the Packers have issues too. Last year, they were absolutely atrocious against the run, and they did little to address that problem in the offseason. They’re relying on internal improvement from the defensive tackles and linebackers, instead of investing in free agency or the draft. And despite featuring a strong pass rush and a couple elite defensive backs, they’ve relied heavily on the blitz to achieve that rush and the rest of their secondary is vulnerable. The Packers are too talented to underachieve too much, but that doesn’t make a playoff spot guaranteed.
Minnesota Vikings
Notable Additions:
WLB Jonathan Greenard
ILB Blake Cashman
SLB Andrew Van Ginkle
QB Sam Darnold
RB Aaron Jones
CB Stephon Gilmore
Notable Departures:
QB Kirk Cousins
OLB Danille Hunter
OLB D.J. Wonnum
ILB Jordan Hicks
OLB Marcus Davenport
WR K.J. Osborne
Notable Rookies:
Best-Case: 9 - 8, 2nd in the NFC North
Okay, stay with me here…what if Sam Darnold isn't a disaster? What if he's actually…good? Or at least average?
It feels like a long-shot, but with a superstar wire receiver like Justin Jefferson at his disposal and a highly-regarded play caller in Kevin O'Connell to direct him, Darnold doesn’t have to be an All Pro to put up All Pro-like numbers in 2024. He just has to avoid too many crippling mistakes, and with this supporting cast, he won't be asked to do anything more than what he's capable of. That could be a recipe for success.
The offensive line, led by left tackle Christian Derrisaw, is one of the league’s better units, and with Aaron Jones in town at running back, their troubles on the ground have been fixed. This is an offense with the potential to be deadly in multiple phases. They have star power on the field and on the sidelines. Their QB isn’t on that level, but as we’ve seen with Brock Purdy in San Francisco, a team can still contend if all the other pieces are playing at a high-level. Wait, where was Darnold playing last? Oh yeah – San Francisco. If he’s learned a thing or two from Purdy, the Vikings could sneak into a playoff spot.
Worst-Case: 3 - 14, 4th in the NFC North
Take everything I said in the previous section and forget it because Sam Darnold is not the answer for the Minnesota Vikings, and I’m sorry for even suggesting that.
As fun as it is to compare Darnold in Minnesota to Purdy in San Francisco, there’s a fundamental difference. Purdy, from his very first game in the NFL, took care of the football. Darnold…does not. The key to the 49ers’ success on offense is ball-control. With Darnold, that basically goes out the window.
That’s not the only problem on offense. After having his second driving-related offense (this time a DUI) in two years in the league, receiver Jordan Addison has cast doubt on his season-long availability, and his speed and downfield skills are integral to keeping teams from devoting too many resources toward stopping Justin Jefferson. If Aaron Jones has lost a step at running back as he heads into his eighth season, the Vikings' woes in the run game won’t be going anywhere either.
On defense, though, the Vikings could be truly terrible. Swapping Danielle Hunter for Jonathan Greenard is a downgrade. They lost two other pass rushers in free agency too. A remade cornerback group still looks thin. In a NFC North that looks stronger than ever, the Vikings could be on the wrong end of some intra-division beatdowns.
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