The All-Star break was supposed to be a turning point for the Cincinnati Reds. Everything was in front of them. A three-game series against the lowly Washington Nationals was the perfect opportunity to get the second-half going in the right direction. This was it – the run to the playoffs begins now…
Aaaaaaand now it’s over. That three-game opportunity against the Nats turned into an abject nightmare for the Redlegs. The Nats swept the Reds as easily as Shohei Ohtani swats 400 ft. homers. It was disheartening for all Reds fandom and crippling to their playoff chances, and yet, it was painfully, painfully predictable.
These are your 2024 Cincinnati Reds. Inconsistency – it’s a feature, not a bug.
The time for blind optimism has been over for a while now, but yesterday was confirmation – to my eyes especially – that it’s officially time for challenging, uncomfortable, potentially career-threatening questions to be asked of Reds management. It’s not just that the Reds aren’t getting it done; it’s that, to any rational and unbiased observer, they won’t get it done. Definitely not this year, and there’s reason to be suspicious that any hope moving forward is a fool's errand.
Isn’t the definition of insanity trying the same thing over and over and expecting a different result? If that’s true, what could possibly be gained by watching the Reds torture us for the rest of August and September with a middling roster and sub-par leadership? They’re not about to “turn it on.” They aren’t the 2017-18 Cleveland Cavaliers and Elly De La Cruz certainly isn’t LeBron James. They aren’t underperforming. They aren’t some sleeping giant. This is the Reds playing to their full potential.
Remember: inconsistency is a feature in Cincinnati, not a bug. The Reds aren’t going to “figure it out.” To borrow the words from former Arizona Cardinals head coach Dennis Green: “They are who we thought they were.” There’s no need to overthink it: the Reds are average at best.
So, who’s to blame? The obvious (and correct) answer is to start at the top, but for fun, let’s do the opposite. Let’s begin with the roster. It’s mediocre. Sure, there are some extremely talented players on the team – De La Cruz quickly comes to mind – but that doesn’t mean the Reds ceiling is higher than any number of sub-.500 teams in baseball. Simply put, this team is not playoff-caliber.
The lineup is lacking. The relievers aren’t dependable. The starting pitching is basically above-average by MLB standards, and many in Cincinnati have confused that development with the Reds featuring a top end unit. It’s not.
Following the Arizona Diamondbacks’ loss to the Texas Rangers in the World Series, Reds fans were quick to point out that the 84-win D-Backs were a mere two games ahead of the Reds for the final Wild Card spot. Two more wins, and the Reds could have been the ones on the magic carpet ride. The Reds were close, said conventional wisdom. If they had added a piece or two at the 2023 trade deadline, or if they made a couple smart moves in the offseason, then who knows what damage the Reds could do, right?
Well, I’m starting to think not adding at the 2023 deadline and keeping their additions… fiscally-responsible (is the nicest way I can put it) was the smartest thing the Reds front office has done in years. Not that they deserve credit for it, by the way. Put out a winner, dammit. But to be fair, maybe they knew better than we did (both in 2023 and today) that this roster wasn’t a great bet to make a postseason run.
The 2023 Reds and the 2024 Reds are not like last year’s enchanted Diamondbacks. Their rosters aren’t even close. The Diamondbacks featured two of the best starters in all of baseball last year in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. The Reds have a fine rotation, but Hunter Greene is no Galen. Greene may have been an All-Star for the first time in his career this season, but Galen was the starter for the National League team in last year’s Midsummer Classic, and he pitched a scoreless inning against the best the American League had to offer. If you watched this year’s All-Star Game, you know Greene’s experience wasn’t as pleasant as Galen’s.
The D-Backs lineup also eclipsed the Reds in nearly every way. Corbin Carroll was better in 2023 than any Red in 2023 or 2024. Same with Ketel Marte. Arguably even Christian Walker and Gabriel Moreno. The Diamondbacks got a little lucky to reach the World Series, but this was a very good team with two elite starters and a lineup filled with consistently dangerous hitters. When they added Tommy Pham and Paul Sewald, they were augmenting an already capable squad. The Reds just don’t measure up.
Point the finger at the Reds front office. They built this team. They keep over-promising and under-delivering. They’ve made moves that I’ve loved and that I’ve hated, but the results are always the same – the Reds are disappointing.
There’s also the issue of manager David Bell. Is he good? Is he bad? Who knows and who cares! Other than getting thrown out all the time, he isn’t notable in any way. He likes to stand up for his players, but is it possible he’s only coddling a young team that’s in desperate need of some tough love? Either way, it’s not like he’s helping the consistency problem. And for as mediocre as Bell is proving (and has proven) to be, would a manager change really solve this? Point the finger at Bell all you want, but I’m not sure even Sparky Anderson could squeeze 83 wins out of this squad.
But, beyond anything and everything else, don’t forget to keep another finger pointing at Bob Castellini. His refusal to spend competitively has hamstrung the Reds for years. The excuses ring hollow. Are the Reds as profitable as some other franchises in the MLB? No. But do they make money? Absolutely. Is the value of professional sports franchises going up by the minute? You betcha.
Castellini can cry poor all he wants, but it’s bullshit. He should stop treating us like idiots. If he isn’t interested in spending competitively, he should sell the team. Someone else will happily buy it and watch as their investment grows like clockwork. It’s ridiculous the way Reds fans are patronized by the team’s owners.
If the Reds are smart (and the unfortunate reality is they’re not) they should start stripping down the roster to the studs. This version of this team doesn’t work. They’re long on potential and short on…well, everything. They could use another starter. They need three or four more bats in the lineup. The bullpen could use an overhaul too.
Sell everything that isn’t tied down to the highest-bidder. Frankie Montas? You can have him. Fernando Cruz can be had too. Any takers for Jake Fraley? I’d even listen to offers for Jeimer Candelario. And please, listen to any and all offers for Jonathan India, because this might be the Reds last, best chance as the 27-year-old second baseman puts up the best season of his four-year career.
Inconsistency. It’s what defines the 2024 Reds. It’s the only thing consistent about them.
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