You probably know this already, but the Reds are bad. You can smell the stink from Great American Ballpark all the way up to Sharonville. I’ve heard even the mayor of Hamilton has been getting complaints from locals about the foul odor. It must be hell for the Castellini family (they have better noses than we do).
After today’s 6 - 4 loss in extra innings, the Reds have now fallen to a season-worst ten games below .500. They’re comfortably in the cellar of the NL Central. Only four teams in baseball have a worse record than the Reds. You can’t describe the 2024 season in any other way but an abject failure.
There’s plenty of reasons and excuses: injuries are taking their toll, the early-season schedule has been brutal, key players have been slumping at the same time, the bullpen has had some highs and lows, etc. etc. That’s all fair, but to truly appreciate how inept the Reds have been (particularly on offense), we have to consider their power – namely, their lack of it.
Last year, with the Reds unencumbered by expectations and a lineup filled with unproven youngsters, they rode an unconventional offensive approach to a near playoff berth, falling two games shy of the last team in, the Arizona Diamondbacks, who went on to reach the World Series. The Reds took baseball back to the 1890s – they eschewed homers in favor of line-drives, they were a constant threat to steal and take an extra base, and one of their players even gasp b-b-b-bunted on occasion?! (Yup, T.J. Friedl led the MLB in bunts-for-hits last year.)
By all measures, it was a successful season. The Reds blew past their projected win totals for the season, saw numerous rookies contribute in huge ways, and appeared set up to prosper. They were the slap-hitting, base-stealing, athletic-as-hell it-team of the future. Frankly, nothing is going to plan.
The Reds offense is abysmal. They have the worst team batting average in baseball (.215), the third-worst on-base percentage (.292), and the fifth-worst slugging percentage (.354). They can’t hit, and even when they do, they aren’t threatening. Of their top nine hitters with the most at-bats, three have batting averages below .200, and if you subtract Elly De La Cruz’s team-high nine home runs, the Reds 36 home runs on the season would only best the horrendous Chicago White Sox. It’s the company you keep, Reds, it’s the company you keep…
The Reds weren’t really mashing last year either, but at least they were around league average. This year, they’ve completely cratered. The Reds can steal as many bases as they want – that’s just another runner left in scoring position.
Where did this power outage come from? Fortunately, we can turn to the MLB’s new tracking data for some clues. Debuting in 2024 is bat speed! For baseball nerds like me, this is incredibly exciting, but let me simplify it like this: higher bat speed means hitting the ball harder. Hit ball hard, ball go far. See? Simple.
The Reds, uh, can’t hit the ball hard. In fact, there’s only one player on their team who consistently hits the ball with any authority at all – De La Cruz, who leads the team with a 74.8 mph average bat speed, in the 88th percentile league-wide. The rest of the Reds? Mediocre at best.
Will Benson has the second-highest average bat speed on the team at 71.7. He and De La Cruz make up the only two hitters on the Reds above the 50th percentile in average bat speed. Sadly, they are both also some of the biggest whiffers on the team too (explains those crazy strikeout numbers). Spencer Steer’s average bat speed is 71.4, in the 46th percentile amongst qualified hitters. That’s…fine – especially for a super-utility guy. And that’s pretty much where the positivity ends.
Jeimer Candelario, this year’s “big” free-agent pickup, has an average bat speed of 68.3, in the 9th percentile league-wide. Would the Reds have handed him $45 million if they’d known this? Eh, probably – they are the Reds, after all.
Fan favorite Jonathan India isn’t much better either at 70.4. Jake Fraley comes in at 70.9. Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Tyler Stephenson’s 71.3 and 71.1, respectively, look pretty good in comparison, but they’re both a fair bit lower than league-average. You don’t even want to hear the rest…but too bad.
Stuart Fairchild? 70.7. Luke Maile? 67.6. Santiago Espinal? Also 67.6. Nick Martini, who just homered today? 69.2. Even hulking Mike Ford can’t break the 70-barrier at 69.5.
This lack of raw power – even in the Reds “power guys” – is sapping this team of all its potential. With the firepower of today’s pitchers, manufacturing runs the old-school way is incredibly tough. You need to be able to balance all those strikeouts with some cheap runs. Stealing bases is nice, stealing a run because all nine guys in your lineup are capable of putting the ball in the seats is nicer.
The Reds can’t do that. They have to score runs the “old fashioned way.” Playing ball like they did 100 years ago sounds idyllic and fun, but those old timers weren’t facing a parade of relievers who all threw straight gas. In 2024, you have to match overwhelming velocity with unshakable power. That’s how you score runs in the modern era – with a barrage of long-balls. It was a valiant effort, Reds, but this approach has failed. Stealing second base isn’t enough; these days, you need to steal home.
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